Uhuru, Raila locked in dead heat race - poll

Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf addresses journalists during the release of the latest opinion poll on presidential candidates on February 22, 2013. PHOTO / ANTHONY OMUYA
By Dave Opiyo  ( email the author)

Posted  Friday, February 22   2013 at  14:17
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A new poll by Ipsos Synovate rates Uhuru Kenyatta's popularity at 44.8%, higher than that of his rival Raila Odinga's 44.4%, in the race for the presidency

Musalia Mudavadi was rated at 5.2%, Peter Kenneth 1.6%, Martha Karua 0.8%, Abduba Dida 0.2% and Prof James ole Kiyiapi at 0.1% .

The results put Mr Kenyatta in the lead for the first time against his rival Mr Odinga.

The poll's results however conform to predictions from other polls that guarantee no outright winner in the first round.

According to the poll results, Mr Odinga would beat Mr Kenyatta in a potential run off with 29 per cent.

Mr Kenyatta, in a run off, would garner 12 per cent of the vote, with a whopping 37 per cent respondents remaining undecided.

Of interest however, is how newcomer Abduba Dida has risen over former Permanent Secretary James ole Kiyiapi, despite the latter being in the campaign trail longer.

The poll, conducted through face to face interviews between February 15 and 19, had a sample size of 5,971 respondents, all registered voters.

This is the last poll that Ipsos Synovate is conducting ahead of the general election.

According to the Opinion Poll Act, results of opinion polls are not to be published within five days to an election.

Mr Tom Wolf, a consultant with the pollster, said none of the presidential candidates is able to garner the 50 plus one per cent threshold set by the Constitution.

The winning candidate is also supposed to garner at least 25 per cent in more than half of the 47 counties.

“This points towards a likely runoff scenario,” Mr Wolf explained.

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